Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.006754 1.172794 1.357170 1.577032 1.832051 2.118536 2.464833
2025-01-19 0.708467 0.921159 1.183737 1.531528 1.980041 2.539051 3.289108
2025-01-26 0.574968 0.808016 1.118083 1.560366 2.174919 2.998833 4.188305
2025-02-02 0.509407 0.762543 1.120417 1.662496 2.462583 3.600328 5.342850
2025-02-09 0.447188 0.707108 1.094426 1.712439 2.673490 4.111452 6.428997
2025-02-16 0.392471 0.651840 1.056988 1.734279 2.837838 4.565758 7.480288
2025-02-23 0.344164 0.597882 1.011646 1.733405 2.960576 4.963239 8.484135
2025-03-02 0.301920 0.546856 0.962592 1.716989 3.051284 5.313813 9.447099
2025-03-09 0.269566 0.507709 0.927311 1.717342 3.167107 5.714884 10.538719
2025-03-16 0.233369 0.456184 0.862986 1.656257 3.163803 5.904486 11.272546
2025-03-23 0.225113 0.455526 0.890326 1.766271 3.485871 6.711897 13.232327
2025-03-30 0.199452 0.417429 0.842203 1.725516 3.515206 6.976850 14.190383
2025-04-06 0.174887 0.378741 0.789159 1.670483 3.514152 7.192102 15.096676
2025-04-13 0.153847 0.344533 0.740906 1.619295 3.515246 7.413554 16.048491
2025-04-20 0.142928 0.330444 0.732237 1.649652 3.689514 8.005612 17.843394
2025-04-27 0.139503 0.332447 0.757969 1.757552 4.043651 9.014014 20.654595
2025-05-04 0.131908 0.323793 0.759071 1.810318 4.281600 9.798825 23.066287
2025-05-11 0.122911 0.310539 0.747993 1.833392 4.454118 10.457583 25.269926
2025-05-18 0.113286 0.294372 0.727987 1.832468 4.569482 10.998075 27.259802
2025-05-25 0.103676 0.276892 0.702613 1.815126 4.642836 11.448340 29.087010
2025-06-01 0.096029 0.263396 0.685274 1.815498 4.759726 12.015038 31.267531
2025-06-08 0.085820 0.241703 0.644613 1.750961 4.704071 12.153518 32.387371
2025-06-15 0.085244 0.246072 0.671598 1.867191 5.131739 13.548033 36.909112